The nominations for the 2025 Academy Awards have been officially revealed, spotlighting ten films vying for the prestigious Best Picture accolade. This year’s nominees are: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, and Wicked. All of these films have the opportunity to take home an Oscar, but the competition will not be equal, as various factors will influence their chances of success.
With the Best Picture nominees now disclosed, discussions are heating up regarding each film’s viability as a contender. Notably, Emilia Pérez boasts an impressive 13 nominations, making it the frontrunner among its peers. In contrast, many other films in this prominent category received only one or two nominations. Historically, a high nomination count has proven advantageous for films, as evidenced by last year’s winner, Oppenheimer. Yet, past victories for films like CODA demonstrate that stories with fewer nominations can also emerge victorious.
Academy voters will rank the Best Picture nominees from least to most deserving as they fill out their preferential ballots. It’s essential to recognize that not all films share the same opportunity for success—some are clear favorites, while others may simply appreciate the honor of being nominated.
To better understand the odds of each nominee, we can categorize them into five distinct tiers. The first category, Just Happy To Be Nominated, includes films unlikely to win but benefit from the attention of the nomination itself. Next, Genre Movies Hoping for an Oscar Breakthrough represents distant contenders from genres often overlooked by the Oscars. The Dark Horse Contender includes films with several nominations that may still surprise viewers.Serious Contenders showcases films with 8 or more nominations that evidently have a pathway to victory. Lastly, The Favorites encapsulates the films most likely to clinch the historic win.
5 Just Happy To Be Nominated
Nickel Boys, I’m Still Here
Among the nominees, Nickel Boys and I’m Still Here stand out as the most unexpected inclusions. The former, directed by RaMell Ross, is a poignant drama based on a true story that, regrettably, has not garnered substantial attention during this awards season. In contrast, I’m Still Here, Brazil’s entry for Best International Feature Film, achieved recognition, notably winning the Golden Globe, following its acclaimed debut at the Venice Film Festival.
Both films are deserving of their Best Picture nominations, as they have received wide-spread acclaim, ideally leading to more viewers engaging with their narratives. Despite this, the likelihood of either winning the Oscar is minimal. Nickel Boys may need a robust late-season push from Amazon MGM Studios, which could emulate the efforts made for Manchester by the Sea; however, history shows that a nomination does not guarantee a win. Similarly, I’m Still Here may shine brighter in categories like Best International Feature or Best Actress than in Best Picture.
4 Genre Movies Hoping For An Oscar Breakthrough
Dune: Part Two, The Substance
The history of the Academy Awards is not particularly favorable toward films in the horror and sci-fi genres. For instance, The Substance marks only the seventh horror movie nominated for Best Picture, while franchises like Dune: Part Two often face challenges in receiving recognition. Both films aspire to defy this nearly century-old trend, and their shared total of five nominations each bolsters their chances.
However, Dune: Part Two appears to face more significant hurdles, particularly since director Denis Villeneuve was notably excluded from the Best Director nominations. Moreover, the film missed recognition in categories like Adapted Screenplay and Editing, in which its predecessor excelled. Without critical support in major categories, Dune Part Two’s road to victory may be rocky, unless it can catalyze a surprise following the success of films like Everything Everywhere All At Once.
The Substance, while similarly unlikely to win, has made waves with its five nominations. Demi Moore’s strong showing in the Best Actress category provides a boost; however, if it aspires to clinch Best Picture, it must secure wins in key categories such as Best Director or Best Original Screenplay. While this achievement seems challenging, it’s still a noteworthy milestone for a body horror film that wasn’t initially seen as an Oscar contender.
3 The Dark Horse Contender
Wicked Is Still In A Good Spot
The discussions surrounding Wicked and its Oscar chances have been vibrant since its release. Initially perceived as a strong contender after winning the National Board of Review’s Best Film title, its momentum has waned following a disappointment at the Golden Globes. Nevertheless, it remains a dark horse in the Best Picture race.
With 10 Oscar nominations to its credit, Wicked’s absence from Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay is notable, yet the accolades for Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande lend weight to its candidacy. Its real strength lies in capturing wins in below-the-line categories, which could shift voter perception toward a Best Picture triumph. Historical precedents, such as Chicago’s musical win in the early 2000s after gaining similar traction, could be repeated if Wicked shines in technical categories.
For Wicked to substantiate its narrative as a potential winner, achieving triumphs in categories like Production Design and Costume Design would elevate its chances significantly. Voter support may hinge on how audiences perceive the film, with a feel-good ambiance that many voters might be searching for, though its path to victory seems uncertain unless it builds considerable momentum.
2 Serious Contenders
Conclave, The Brutalist, and A Complete Unknown
As we progress to the upper echelons of contenders for the 2025 Best Picture, we encounter Conclave, The Brutalist, and A Complete Unknown. Each of these films possesses substantial Oscar nominations outside of the Best Picture category to enhance their chances of success. With The Brutalist leading the pack with 10 nominations, followed by Conclave and A Complete Unknown with 8 each, these films have solid support.
|
2025 Best Picture Oscar Nominee |
Number Of Nominations |
|---|---|
|
Emilia Perez |
13 |
|
The Brutalist |
10 |
|
Wicked |
10 |
|
A Complete Unknown |
8 |
|
Conclave |
8 |
|
Pomegranate |
6 |
|
Dune: Part Two |
5 |
|
The Substance |
5 |
|
I’m Still Here |
3 |
|
Nickel Boys |
2 |
These films also share representation in key categories like Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and various Screenplay categories. Notably, The Brutalist and A Complete Unknown have received Best Director nominations, while Conclave may benefit from the preferential voting system, despite missing out. The overall picture is positive: if the paths converging for these films align correctly in upcoming awards, any one of them could emerge as the Best Picture victor.
1 The Favorites
Now, Emilia Perez
Anora and Emilia Pérez are positioned distinctly among the nominees for the 2025 Best Picture Oscar. While Anora has a modest tally of six total nominations, it managed to qualify across all major categories, suggesting its potential for winning in areas like Actress, Director, Editing, and Original Screenplay. This positions Anora as a strong candidate whose potential Best Picture win seems increasingly likely as awards season progresses.
Emilia Pérez, on the other hand, presents a more complex narrative. Opinions on the film are mixed, facing hurdles such as the perceived Netflix bias against garnering the top award. Despite that, its impressive count of 13 nominations clearly reflects strong support from Oscar voters and mirrors its acclaim from other awards bodies. Emilia Pérez has a very real chance of potentially becoming Netflix’s first Best Picture winner.
While it’s premature to declare which film will ultimately win, Anora and Emilia Pérez appear to be leading contenders, positioned far above their competitors. The relevance of The Brutalist’s controversy could reshape its odds, but Emilia Pérez’s reception thus far has not hindered its campaign. The path appears set for a showdown between Anora and Emilia Pérez for the coveted Best Picture Oscar in 2025.
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